Democrats are in Trouble!
O.K. North Carolina and Indiana primaries are over. To the surprise of no one, John McCain won in both states. No REALLY! The only real contest remaining in the presidential race is on the Democrat’s side. And, as expected, Barack Obama won in North Carolina, while Hillary Clinton won (by a narrow margin) in Indiana.
Since I personally am not a rabid supporter of any of the three candidates, it’s a simple matter for me to observe what is, and has been, happening. In my opinion, the Democrats are in trouble!
Obama’s win in North Carolina was no surprise. Something like half of the registered voters are black, and blacks have been voting 90%-PLUS for Obama. What is surprising is that Clinton did as well as she did in this southern state.
After originally expecting a double-digit landslide in Indiana, Clinton squeaked through with the win and has vowed to continue her campaign. I’m not surprised. By continuing her campaign through the final six primaries, it’s pretty certain that she can keep Obama from securing the required number of pledged delegates to obtain the nomination before the convention. Thus, it will be a brokered convention for the Democrats and the final selection will be left to the super-delegates.
The animosity between the two campaigns is escalating, with greater than 30% of Clinton followers stating they will vote for McCain, rather than Obama. Roughly another 15-25% (depending on who you ask) state that they won’t vote, rather than voting for Obama. According to some polls, that computes to over half of Clinton’s followers stating they will NOT VOTE, or they will VOTE FOR THE OTHER GUY. Not good for Obama.
So the super delegates will have the unenviable task of selecting a nominee. And there are so many things that need to be taken into consideration:
- If Obama comes close, and super-delegates DON’T choose him, will there be race riots?
- If Obama DOES clinch the nomination, can he beat the Republicans in November?
- Will the SDs decide that, since Hillary has taken all the BIG states, she’s a more viable candidate?
- Will the Jeremiah Wright and other unsavory connections to Obama play an important part in voter decisions in November?
- What will happen to the Michigan and Florida votes?
- Can a candidate from a brokered convention actually win?
- Would Global-warming, Nobel Peace Prize-winning, Al Gore be preferable?
- Will John Edwards ever endorse anyone?
- Who cares?
The ‘What if?’ scenarios must really be weighing heavily on the minds and hearts of Super Delegates. This run for the White House will make them either heroes, villains, or laughing-stocks, depending on the outcome in August, at the Democratic National Convention, and November, at the voting booths.
By the way, is Jimmy Carter still a Super Delegate?
The democrats are in trouble!
Tags: Al Gore, Barack Obama, brokered convention, delegates, Democratic National Convention, Democratic Presidential primary, Democrats, Florida primary, Hillary Clinton, Indiana primary, John Edwards, John McCain, Michigan Primary, North Carolina primary, Politics, Republicans, White HouseLeave a Reply
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